Research
Original analytical pieces on international trade. Each page traces every figure to a primary parquet source, BACI for bilateral flows, CEPII Gravity for distance and FTA dummies, IMF and World Bank for macro covariates. Methods cite the literature; numbers cite the SQL.
- gravityGravity coefficient under PPML, interactive
- gravityGravity PPML, Silva-Tenreyro estimator over BACI 1995-2024
- chinaThe second China shock, semiconductors, EVs, batteries
- tariffsTrade-war border-price pass-through (ARW 2019, extended)
- gravityHow distance still matters: structural elasticities of bilateral trade
- shocksCOVID trade collapse and uneven recovery
- growthExport diversification and long-run growth
- commoditiesDutch disease in commodity exporters
- firmsExport survival rates, duration analysis
- firmsHidden champions, niche-dominant exporters
- patternsIntra-industry trade trends, Grubel-Lloyd over 30 years
- commoditiesMineral dependence and growth fragility
- patternsNetwork centrality in the global trade graph
- growthPremature deindustrialization in emerging markets
- qualityQuality ladders, Schott unit values updated through 2024
- patternsRCA persistence, what countries stay good at
- agreementsRCEP and CPTPP, bloc effects on bilateral trade
- shocksRussia-Ukraine war and the trade map
- chinaSemiconductor supply-chain decoupling
- gvcServices as intermediates in manufacturing exports
- gravityAsymmetric trade costs, exports vs imports