Where trade is most exposed
Composite trade-risk index across 200 countries. Three components: import-concentration (Herfindahl-type), chokepoint exposure (share of imports routed through critical maritime passages), and commodity price stress (Pink Sheet price-volatility coverage). Scores are percentile ranks (0-100); higher means more exposed.
No real-time signal is implied. Index is a structural snapshot, not a live risk monitor.
Weights: Equal (1/3 each) — override via ?weights=concentration,chokepoint,price (unnormalized; e.g. ?weights=1,0,0 ranks purely by concentration).
| # | Country | Composite | Concentration | Chokepoint | Price stress |
|---|
| 1 | Iran | 78.1 | 91.5 | 85.9 | 56.8 |
| 2 | CCK | 76.0 | 99.0 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 3 | BES | 75.8 | 93.5 | 34.4 | 99.5 |
| 4 | SEN | 75.7 | 68.8 | 71.9 | 86.4 |
| 5 | CXR | 75.6 | 98.0 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 6 | NIU | 75.5 | 97.5 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 7 | PER | 74.0 | 53.8 | 73.9 | 94.5 |
| 8 | AIA | 72.8 | 89.4 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 9 | GIB | 72.8 | 95.5 | 34.4 | 88.4 |
| 10 | KIR | 72.6 | 88.9 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 11 | BLM | 72.4 | 93.0 | 34.4 | 89.7 |
| 12 | SPM | 71.5 | 90.5 | 34.4 | 89.7 |
| 13 | ASM | 71.4 | 94.5 | 34.4 | 85.4 |
| 14 | BMU | 71.3 | 95.0 | 34.4 | 84.4 |
| 15 | NFK | 70.8 | 83.4 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 16 | PAK | 70.6 | 74.9 | 96.0 | 41.0 |
| 17 | JOR | 70.5 | 34.7 | 94.5 | 82.4 |
| 18 | Brazil | 70.2 | 51.3 | 93.5 | 65.8 |
| 19 | United Kingdom | 70.0 | 22.6 | 93.0 | 94.5 |
| 20 | GRL | 69.9 | 96.0 | 34.4 | 79.4 |
| 21 | SAU | 69.8 | 51.8 | 92.5 | 65.3 |
| 22 | COM | 69.6 | 79.9 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 23 | WLF | 69.4 | 74.4 | 34.4 | 99.5 |
| 24 | VGB | 68.3 | 82.4 | 34.4 | 87.9 |
| 25 | SLE | 68.1 | 75.4 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 26 | ARE | 68.0 | 9.5 | 100.0 | 94.5 |
| 27 | VEN | 67.3 | 78.9 | 88.9 | 34.2 |
| 28 | TON | 67.3 | 85.4 | 34.4 | 81.9 |
| 29 | DZA | 67.0 | 77.9 | 76.4 | 46.7 |
| 30 | TUN | 67.0 | 80.9 | 70.4 | 49.7 |
| 31 | PNG | 66.8 | 71.4 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 32 | COL | 66.2 | 50.3 | 96.5 | 51.8 |
| 33 | BGD | 65.4 | 55.8 | 99.5 | 41.0 |
| 34 | Russia | 65.0 | 49.7 | 95.0 | 50.3 |
| 35 | AND | 64.1 | 79.4 | 34.4 | 78.4 |
| 36 | YEM | 63.2 | 83.9 | 97.5 | 8.3 |
| 37 | ERI | 62.7 | 91.0 | 34.4 | 62.8 |
| 38 | NGA | 62.6 | 67.3 | 69.8 | 50.8 |
| 39 | VCT | 62.4 | 58.3 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 40 | ECU | 62.3 | 40.2 | 74.4 | 72.4 |
| 41 | IRQ | 62.3 | 67.8 | 87.9 | 31.2 |
| 42 | Canada | 62.0 | 4.5 | 86.9 | 94.5 |
| 43 | KAZ | 61.9 | 56.8 | 34.4 | 94.5 |
| 44 | MMR | 61.8 | 60.3 | 77.4 | 47.7 |
| 45 | LSO | 60.6 | 80.4 | 34.4 | 66.8 |
| 46 | EGY | 60.5 | 27.6 | 95.5 | 58.3 |
| 47 | COK | 60.4 | 59.8 | 34.4 | 86.9 |
| 48 | LKA | 60.3 | 22.1 | 97.0 | 61.8 |
| 49 | CYM | 60.1 | 65.8 | 34.4 | 79.9 |
| 50 | BWA | 59.9 | 84.4 | 34.4 | 60.8 |
| 51 | LBY | 59.7 | 57.3 | 34.4 | 87.4 |
| 52 | NER | 59.7 | 60.8 | 34.4 | 83.9 |
| 53 | Vietnam | 59.6 | 40.7 | 82.9 | 55.3 |
| 54 | LAO | 59.3 | 39.7 | 76.9 | 61.3 |
| 55 | MOZ | 59.1 | 85.9 | 70.9 | 20.6 |
| 56 | India | 58.7 | 37.2 | 98.0 | 41.0 |
| 57 | NRU | 58.5 | 64.3 | 34.4 | 76.9 |
| 58 | Korea, DPR | 58.5 | 100.0 | 34.4 | 41.0 |
| 59 | CMR | 58.0 | 86.9 | 34.4 | 52.8 |
| 60 | MHL | 57.5 | 97.0 | 34.4 | 41.0 |
Methodology
Concentration (Herfindahl)
Country-level import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) across all HS6 product-partner pairs. A high score means the country relies on a small number of suppliers or product categories, amplifying single-source disruption risk. Computed from BACI trade flows (latest geo-dependency vintage: 2022).
Chokepoint exposure
Share of a country's imports that transit at least one of the critical maritime chokepoints listed below, weighted by chokepoint trade-share. Countries importing from distant regions via narrow sea passages score higher. Routes follow IMO/EIA heuristics.
Commodity price stress
Coverage-weighted trailing 12-month price volatility from the World Bank Pink Sheet (commodity prices). Countries whose import basket is dominated by highly volatile commodity prices (energy, metals, food) score higher.
Chokepoints included
| Chokepoint | Trade share | Oil share | Container share | Source |
|---|
| Strait of Malacca | 33% | 25% | n/a | IMO-Singapore Normal Operations Report 2023; US EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints 2023. |
| Dover Strait (English Channel) | n/a | n/a |
Data vintages: Geo-dependency (BACI): 2022. Commodity price stress: Pink Sheet trailing 12-month (coverage depends on commodity basket for each country). Index snapshot: 2026-05-22. No real-time signal is implied; this is a structural snapshot updated periodically.