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MERCATOR
A structural model of supplier substitution, estimated on 30 years of bilateral product-level trade and validated out-of-sample on the 2022 Russia shock. It turns TradeWeave’s exposure accounting into a behavioral estimate: not just what is at risk, but where the trade would actually go— and which dependencies have nowhere realistic to go at all.
A country's single-source dependencies, ranked by how hard they are to replace, with the model's predicted alternative suppliers.
The structural choice model, the Russia-2022 out-of-sample validation, the coefficient decomposition, and the Substitutability Index.
Built on TradeWeave’s BACI/CEPII data (238 countries, 5,022 products, 1995–2024). Method and limitations are documented in full on the methodology page.