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Predict bilateral trade flows using an ensemble of Holt's linear trend method, linear regression, and weighted moving average. Forecasts are generated from historical BACI trade data.
Source: BACI International Trade Database (CEPII), HS92, 1995–2024
Methodology: Ensemble of Holt's linear trend method (double exponential smoothing), OLS linear regression, and weighted moving average. Model weights determined by leave-one-out cross-validation MSE.